Now that Vince is back from lunch we can focus on this weekend. He had an open faced roast beef sandwich and a pancake so his brain is operating at an all-time high! Who hasn't had an open faced roast beef sandwich and a pancake right before turning in a 70% win percentage for the weekend? Dave is utilizing some leftovers chicken Alfredo so he is pumped up as well!
Just so there is no confusion on our records Vince has changed 3 games, he is taking Virginia Tech at home to cover over Clemson, he is taking South Carolina to smash Auburn who can't stop anybody with that defense they are putting on the field, and he is taking the Bengals who have more yardage than their opponents in all three games. Bengals to cover but don't be surprised to see an outright upset by them to bring the Bills back to reality. The changes have been made on the picks post, the spreadsheet, and wanted to make a post explaining the changes.
Tonight we have a big matchup out west between BYU and Utah State. BYU plays host to a Utah State team that was looking forward to this game last week when they fell to Colorado State. We really look for Utah State to bounce back here against a not very good BYU team. There are plenty of stats here to say BYU should cover, and should win the game, like Utah State is 1-9 in its last 10 games against BYU, or 2-18 in its last 20 road games, and BYU is 6-1 in its last 7 home games, but BYU is turnover prone and ranks 109th in points scored, 111th in total yards, 116th in rushing yards and 66th in passing yards. None of these numbers put fear into anybody. They are also in the mid 60's in the country in most defensive categories. On the other side of the coin Utah State is 13th in scoring, 16th in total yards, and 5th in rushing yards. Their defensive stats don't quite add up considering they are 12th in total yards and 16th in rushing yards but they are 96th in points allowed thanks to their 104th ranked passing defense. BYU might have some success in the air early, but look for Utah to slow them down and possibly come out on top in this game. Take the Aggies and the points here. And don't forget about that honor code, the boys at Utah State are coming in tonight amp on Red Bull while the BYU Cougars are sipping their water with their blue balls. That honor code isn't going to get them a victory tonight!
Look for some updates this weekend and keep spreading the word!
Friday, September 30, 2011
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
And the Picks....
Remember the line is listed for the home team! Dave and Vince only differ on the Clemson V Tech game and Auburn South Carolina.
Week 5 College Games
Bowling Green @ West Virginia -19.5 WV
Georgia Tech @ NC State +9.5 GTech
Texas Tech @ Kansas +6.5 Texas Tech
Michigan State @ Ohio St -3 Ohio St
Alabama @ Florida +3.5 Alabama
Texas A&M @ Arkansas +3 Arkansas
Baylor @ K State +3.5 Baylor
Ball St @ Oklahoma -37 OU
Mississippi ST @ Georgia -6.5 Georgia
Nebraska @ Wisconsin -9 Wisconsin
North Western @ Illinois -8 North Western
Clemson @ Virginia Tech -7 Clemson (D) V Tech (V)
Auburn @ South Carolina -10.5 Auburn (D) South Carolina (V)
Week 4 NFL Games
Saints @ Jags +7 Saints (D&V)
Titans @ Browns -1 Titans (D&V)
Bill @ Bengals +3 Bills (D) Bengals (V)
Vikings @ Chiefs +1.5 Vikings (D) Chiefs (V)
Panthers @ Bears -6.5 Panthers (D&V)
Falcons @ Seahawks +4.5 Falcons (D&V)
Giants @ Cardinals +1 Giants (D&V)
Dolphins @ Chargers -7.5 Chargers (D) Fins (V)
Broncos @ Packers -12.5 Broncos (D&V)
Patriots @ Raiders +4 Patriots (D&V)
Jets @ Ravens -3.5 Ravens (D&V)
Lions @ Cowboys -1.5 Cowboys (D&V)
49ers @ Eagles -7.5 waiting on Vick although he says he is playing
Steelers @ Texans -4 Texans (D&V)
Redskins @ Rams pk Rams (D) Redskins (V)
Colts @ Bucs -10 Colts (D&V)
Some thoughts from Dave...
Skins @ Rams : After a bitter end to a Monday Night Football defeat, look for Skins to go in and give the Rams a tough contest in St. Louis, but will fall with the self destructing Grossman at the helm. I don't wish this upon Grossman, but it's in his nature to take a nose dive after he's scrutinized by the media. It's obvious in his post game interview, but we'll see. I also think this is the game where Sam Bradford breaks out and has a great game. A healthy Steven Jackson always helps too. This game is a pick em and i like the home team, the Rams to squeak out their first win of the year this Sunday.
Lions @ Cowboys : This will be a great game. In all fairness, I think both teams have upward momentum. Dallas coming off a win despite several mistakes, but made enough plays on both sides of the ball to walk away with a victory. Detroit posted a very impressive road win in Minnesota. They were shutout in the first half only to come back and win it in overtime with a field goal 26-23. Stafford has looked sensational in the first few weeks and I look for him to see more pressure from the Rob Ryan defense than they did last week. This should be a great game for all involved. I see Dallas taking this one in a slight margin at home. 28-24.
Some thoughts from Vince...
Vikings @ Chiefs -- Here is what I know, the Vikings have had double digit leads in every game, with the last game being 20-0 at half time. This team is down, it is about time for Ponder to start, and McNabb is washed up. If the Chiefs showed one thing last week, it is they are not going to quit on this season. What they want to do here is force Minnesota into quite a few third downs, McNabb isn't accurate enough to be in too many third downs and succeed. He is inaccurate and has shown over his career he is not good when pressured. If the Chiefs can contain Peterson, not let him get first downs on first and second down, the Chiefs should be able to handle the Vikings. I will add that Haley called the plays in the 2nd half at San Diego, and look what the offense did, it showed up. He denies it, but it happened and anybody that watched the game could see it. He needs to call the majority of the plays this week for the Chiefs to be successful. Chiefs stay in this game long enough and the Vikings will self implode. Chiefs pull out a close one at home, another factor in them winning, 20-17. Look for the Dex Factor in this game, he could bust some big runs and help open the passing game. Also, please bench Thomas Jones.
Dolphins @ Chargers -- Two of the most unlikely outcomes for a game are a team winning by 8 or 9 points, and since I don't see the Chargers winning this game by 10 I am taking the Fins. If the line was 7 I would be inclined to think it might be a push, but I will again point out this week the Dolphins are better on the road then they are at home, without a late touchdown with 40 seconds left last week they win at Cleveland. Not only was that a great individual play by McCoy to avoid the rush the pass was on the money and was within a fingernail of getting tipped away. Tony Sparano is coaching for his life, his fate might already be sealed, but his players like him and will step up here. Phillip Rivers is the modern day Brett Favre, can look great on plays and down right stupid on others. I see the Chargers turning the ball over at least twice and the Dolphins hanging tough in this game. Chargers win, but don't be shocked if Miami has a chance to win at the end of the game. Chargers 24 Dolphins 20.
Week 5 College Games
Bowling Green @ West Virginia -19.5 WV
Georgia Tech @ NC State +9.5 GTech
Texas Tech @ Kansas +6.5 Texas Tech
Michigan State @ Ohio St -3 Ohio St
Alabama @ Florida +3.5 Alabama
Texas A&M @ Arkansas +3 Arkansas
Baylor @ K State +3.5 Baylor
Ball St @ Oklahoma -37 OU
Mississippi ST @ Georgia -6.5 Georgia
Nebraska @ Wisconsin -9 Wisconsin
North Western @ Illinois -8 North Western
Clemson @ Virginia Tech -7 Clemson (D) V Tech (V)
Auburn @ South Carolina -10.5 Auburn (D) South Carolina (V)
Week 4 NFL Games
Saints @ Jags +7 Saints (D&V)
Titans @ Browns -1 Titans (D&V)
Bill @ Bengals +3 Bills (D) Bengals (V)
Vikings @ Chiefs +1.5 Vikings (D) Chiefs (V)
Panthers @ Bears -6.5 Panthers (D&V)
Falcons @ Seahawks +4.5 Falcons (D&V)
Giants @ Cardinals +1 Giants (D&V)
Dolphins @ Chargers -7.5 Chargers (D) Fins (V)
Broncos @ Packers -12.5 Broncos (D&V)
Patriots @ Raiders +4 Patriots (D&V)
Jets @ Ravens -3.5 Ravens (D&V)
Lions @ Cowboys -1.5 Cowboys (D&V)
49ers @ Eagles -7.5 waiting on Vick although he says he is playing
Steelers @ Texans -4 Texans (D&V)
Redskins @ Rams pk Rams (D) Redskins (V)
Colts @ Bucs -10 Colts (D&V)
Some thoughts from Dave...
Skins @ Rams : After a bitter end to a Monday Night Football defeat, look for Skins to go in and give the Rams a tough contest in St. Louis, but will fall with the self destructing Grossman at the helm. I don't wish this upon Grossman, but it's in his nature to take a nose dive after he's scrutinized by the media. It's obvious in his post game interview, but we'll see. I also think this is the game where Sam Bradford breaks out and has a great game. A healthy Steven Jackson always helps too. This game is a pick em and i like the home team, the Rams to squeak out their first win of the year this Sunday.
Lions @ Cowboys : This will be a great game. In all fairness, I think both teams have upward momentum. Dallas coming off a win despite several mistakes, but made enough plays on both sides of the ball to walk away with a victory. Detroit posted a very impressive road win in Minnesota. They were shutout in the first half only to come back and win it in overtime with a field goal 26-23. Stafford has looked sensational in the first few weeks and I look for him to see more pressure from the Rob Ryan defense than they did last week. This should be a great game for all involved. I see Dallas taking this one in a slight margin at home. 28-24.
Some thoughts from Vince...
Vikings @ Chiefs -- Here is what I know, the Vikings have had double digit leads in every game, with the last game being 20-0 at half time. This team is down, it is about time for Ponder to start, and McNabb is washed up. If the Chiefs showed one thing last week, it is they are not going to quit on this season. What they want to do here is force Minnesota into quite a few third downs, McNabb isn't accurate enough to be in too many third downs and succeed. He is inaccurate and has shown over his career he is not good when pressured. If the Chiefs can contain Peterson, not let him get first downs on first and second down, the Chiefs should be able to handle the Vikings. I will add that Haley called the plays in the 2nd half at San Diego, and look what the offense did, it showed up. He denies it, but it happened and anybody that watched the game could see it. He needs to call the majority of the plays this week for the Chiefs to be successful. Chiefs stay in this game long enough and the Vikings will self implode. Chiefs pull out a close one at home, another factor in them winning, 20-17. Look for the Dex Factor in this game, he could bust some big runs and help open the passing game. Also, please bench Thomas Jones.
Dolphins @ Chargers -- Two of the most unlikely outcomes for a game are a team winning by 8 or 9 points, and since I don't see the Chargers winning this game by 10 I am taking the Fins. If the line was 7 I would be inclined to think it might be a push, but I will again point out this week the Dolphins are better on the road then they are at home, without a late touchdown with 40 seconds left last week they win at Cleveland. Not only was that a great individual play by McCoy to avoid the rush the pass was on the money and was within a fingernail of getting tipped away. Tony Sparano is coaching for his life, his fate might already be sealed, but his players like him and will step up here. Phillip Rivers is the modern day Brett Favre, can look great on plays and down right stupid on others. I see the Chargers turning the ball over at least twice and the Dolphins hanging tough in this game. Chargers win, but don't be shocked if Miami has a chance to win at the end of the game. Chargers 24 Dolphins 20.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Week 5 College Football Preview
Going to highlight some of the big college games this weekend today, and we would also like to say we created a facebook page for daveandvince.blogspot.com. You can find that page and like us and we would appreciate that greatly. Stay tuned to facebook for more updates and information as well.
Some thoughts from Vince...
Nebraska @ Wisconsin -- One would think #8 at #7 would be a good game with a small line, but the line opened at -10 for the home team and currently stands at -9 for Wisconsin. To be honest without even breaking down the stats on this game you can see that Wisconsin is clearly the better team, more athletic on both sides of the ball, and they are at home. Some stats to back the thought of Wisconsin rolling... Nebraska is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games, Wisconsin is 12-1 ATS at home in its last 13 home games, and Wisconsin is 10-0 on turf in its last 10 games. This doesn't look promising for the Huskers. Wisconsin can run the ball, and Nebraska has not shown the ability this year to stop the run. Wisconsin on the other hand can stop the run and will contain Martinez and Woodhead. Teams want to force Nebraska into throwing the ball with Martinez, and I think the Badgers will do this and then make Martinez look like a freshman. It has been 49 years since 2 top 10 ranked teams have played in Camp Randall and don't you dare think they won't be pumped up for this game. Wisconsin in a landslide 49-21.
Alabama @ Florida -- This line open at Alabama -4 and now is at -3.5. Everybody thinks that this is going to be a defensive matchup, Saben vs Muschamp, two top 5 defenses battling back and forth, but I personally see this game a little differently. If you don't believe me look at who Florida has played and the ranks of those teams especially rushing the ball, one of them is dead last and Kentucky is somewhere around 90. Florida is improving, and they are good, but they are still not on the same level as Alabama. AJ McCarron is kind of like McElroy, as the season goes on you will continue to see his improvement, and he will become more than just a game manager. I look at Florida as I look at Arkansas, a very good team but just not quite on the level of Alabama just yet. Florida keeps it close early, but Bama rolls tide 31-16.
Thoughts from Dave...
I must say I am very eager for this weeks games. The fastest way to feel better after a sub-par weekend is to dive right back into it without any pause. Like Frank Gifford said " Football is like nuclear warfare. There are no winners, only survivors". I think that's true in a lot of ways.We have a good weekend of football ahead of us. We will have several games featured this weekend including Arkansas traveling to Cowboys stadium to take on the newest SEC school in the Texas A&M Aggies. We also have Kansas State playing host to the Baylor Bears. Vince will cover Alabama at Florida as well as Nebraska visiting the Badgers of Wisconsin. As always we will be posting our picks for other key match-ups going on throughout the country.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M : Both teams are coming off their first loss of the season. Arkansas comes in after getting shelled at Tuscalosa 38-14. The Aggies come in after a heartbreaking loss at home to Oklahoma State 30-29. Bobby Petrino will come in with his squad refocused after being taken to the wood shed last Saturday. Tyler Wilson showed great poise last week hanging in the pocket while taking hit after hit and still managed to complete some great passes, although he lacks down field arm strength. He won't see the same kind of Defense he saw last week, but nonetheless, he will see a quality product capable of causing him some difficulty, especially if Arkansas decides to abandon the run like they did in Tuscaloosa. Ryan Tannehill cause problems for that Arkansas D as well. I look for this to be a fairly high scoring affair with Arkansas edging out Texas A&M 34-31.
Baylor @ Kansas State - This week Kansas State falls at home to the Bears of Baylor with ease. Baylor will no doubt put up 50 as their offense is explosive while ranking 3rd overall in points scored. But their problem is on the other side of the ball giving up a little over 26 points a game. This is an easy pick for me as the Bears are only favored by 3.5. There is a saying " Honesty is the 1st chapter in the Book of Wisdom", and honestly, the Bears will embarrass the elderly Snyder at Bill Snyder field!
Some thoughts from Vince...
Nebraska @ Wisconsin -- One would think #8 at #7 would be a good game with a small line, but the line opened at -10 for the home team and currently stands at -9 for Wisconsin. To be honest without even breaking down the stats on this game you can see that Wisconsin is clearly the better team, more athletic on both sides of the ball, and they are at home. Some stats to back the thought of Wisconsin rolling... Nebraska is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games, Wisconsin is 12-1 ATS at home in its last 13 home games, and Wisconsin is 10-0 on turf in its last 10 games. This doesn't look promising for the Huskers. Wisconsin can run the ball, and Nebraska has not shown the ability this year to stop the run. Wisconsin on the other hand can stop the run and will contain Martinez and Woodhead. Teams want to force Nebraska into throwing the ball with Martinez, and I think the Badgers will do this and then make Martinez look like a freshman. It has been 49 years since 2 top 10 ranked teams have played in Camp Randall and don't you dare think they won't be pumped up for this game. Wisconsin in a landslide 49-21.
Alabama @ Florida -- This line open at Alabama -4 and now is at -3.5. Everybody thinks that this is going to be a defensive matchup, Saben vs Muschamp, two top 5 defenses battling back and forth, but I personally see this game a little differently. If you don't believe me look at who Florida has played and the ranks of those teams especially rushing the ball, one of them is dead last and Kentucky is somewhere around 90. Florida is improving, and they are good, but they are still not on the same level as Alabama. AJ McCarron is kind of like McElroy, as the season goes on you will continue to see his improvement, and he will become more than just a game manager. I look at Florida as I look at Arkansas, a very good team but just not quite on the level of Alabama just yet. Florida keeps it close early, but Bama rolls tide 31-16.
Thoughts from Dave...
I must say I am very eager for this weeks games. The fastest way to feel better after a sub-par weekend is to dive right back into it without any pause. Like Frank Gifford said " Football is like nuclear warfare. There are no winners, only survivors". I think that's true in a lot of ways.We have a good weekend of football ahead of us. We will have several games featured this weekend including Arkansas traveling to Cowboys stadium to take on the newest SEC school in the Texas A&M Aggies. We also have Kansas State playing host to the Baylor Bears. Vince will cover Alabama at Florida as well as Nebraska visiting the Badgers of Wisconsin. As always we will be posting our picks for other key match-ups going on throughout the country.
Arkansas vs Texas A&M : Both teams are coming off their first loss of the season. Arkansas comes in after getting shelled at Tuscalosa 38-14. The Aggies come in after a heartbreaking loss at home to Oklahoma State 30-29. Bobby Petrino will come in with his squad refocused after being taken to the wood shed last Saturday. Tyler Wilson showed great poise last week hanging in the pocket while taking hit after hit and still managed to complete some great passes, although he lacks down field arm strength. He won't see the same kind of Defense he saw last week, but nonetheless, he will see a quality product capable of causing him some difficulty, especially if Arkansas decides to abandon the run like they did in Tuscaloosa. Ryan Tannehill cause problems for that Arkansas D as well. I look for this to be a fairly high scoring affair with Arkansas edging out Texas A&M 34-31.
Baylor @ Kansas State - This week Kansas State falls at home to the Bears of Baylor with ease. Baylor will no doubt put up 50 as their offense is explosive while ranking 3rd overall in points scored. But their problem is on the other side of the ball giving up a little over 26 points a game. This is an easy pick for me as the Bears are only favored by 3.5. There is a saying " Honesty is the 1st chapter in the Book of Wisdom", and honestly, the Bears will embarrass the elderly Snyder at Bill Snyder field!
Monday, September 26, 2011
Weekend Past
Well it seems like that was a tough weekend. Dave summed it up saying it was brutal for him and Vince did decent being just over .500 on the weekend. Vince also made some bets off the board taking BYU and the Royals Friday night, Florida and Baylor on Saturday, and then went against his picks late last night and took the Colts +11 and the over of 39. A NFL team at home as a huge dog, just couldn't see the Colts laying another egg. Without those 3 small parlays Vince would have been even on the week, but thanks to those we had some minor profits. That is what gambling is about though, you are going to have rough weeks here and there, but it is a marathon not a sprint. Dave has already said he is bouncing back strong this week, and I plan on doing the same!
Some feedback that we got this weekend is that we need to have some updated posts over the weekend. Maybe after some of the games, or at least after Saturday's college games before the NFL kicks off on Sunday. One thing that I know about gambling is that you don't chase your money. If you are having a bad week you stick to the game plan and don't load up on a game or don't try to hit a big parlay to offset any losses. Stay the course. Watch this weekend, Dave and Vince are going to have some good picks this week, so stay tuned for those. We will also work on having some weekend updates as that could be more exciting for us all!
We still have the Monday night game tonight with Washington @ Dallas, the line has moved quite a bit with the current line being Dallas by 3. Dave still likes Dallas in this game and Vince likes the Skins still thinking the Skins could win this game outright.
Some feedback that we got this weekend is that we need to have some updated posts over the weekend. Maybe after some of the games, or at least after Saturday's college games before the NFL kicks off on Sunday. One thing that I know about gambling is that you don't chase your money. If you are having a bad week you stick to the game plan and don't load up on a game or don't try to hit a big parlay to offset any losses. Stay the course. Watch this weekend, Dave and Vince are going to have some good picks this week, so stay tuned for those. We will also work on having some weekend updates as that could be more exciting for us all!
We still have the Monday night game tonight with Washington @ Dallas, the line has moved quite a bit with the current line being Dallas by 3. Dave still likes Dallas in this game and Vince likes the Skins still thinking the Skins could win this game outright.
Friday, September 23, 2011
Updates
There were a couple of late changes to 2 of Vince's picks, Atlanta and Minnesota. Please make note of that as it happened before Sunday. Dave and Vince agree now on Atlanta going to Tampa and beating the Bucs who are not good ATS at home. Vince also likes Minnesota to slow down a hot Detroit team.
Going to throw up some bonus picks, just some thoughts from Vince...
Florida -19.5 against Kentucky. Gators roll
South Carolina @ home against Vanderbilt +16. Vanderbilt is under rated and should play a solid game here.
Packers @ Bears I look for a lot of points to be scored here with the over of 46 being a solid bet.
Finally, we look for Wyoming to cover the +21.5 against Nebraska. Playing in that altitude is just different and I think it gets to Nebraska later in the game.
Also, hope you took the under bet last night, it was close but stayed on the under. Lots of turnovers which we thought would happen and one at the end to save the under.
Now some thoughts from Dave...
I like that Vince is going with ATL. I also think Minnesota could in fact capture that elusive first win, but I will stick with gunslinger Stafford and WR phenom Calvin Johnson.
I am going to go the other way with Vandy/South Carolina. I think the Commodores are in for a long day between the air assault from Garcia and sensational sophmore RB Marcus Lattimore pounding it out on the ground. Lattimore is coming off a career best 246 yards on 37 carries for 3 TDs. I see no reason why he shouldn't carry that over against Vandy, given that this could potentially be a high scoring affair. Don't look for the "ole ball coach" to let up off the gas pedal in Columbia.
Another game I like is Baylor playing host to Owls of Rice. Baylor should easily cover the 20 and possibly a lot more. Griffin should look to boast his Heisman stock as he shreds the Owl's D both through the air as well as on the ground. I like the Bears, I think they are capable of putting 50 points up a game, especially with the Defense of the Owls ranking 82nd.
Florida should roll against Kentucky, the Wildcats would be better suited for flag football played against the student body. The Wildcats should be stripped of the Wild in those cats. Will be luck to to come away with 3 scores. They could call that a victory.
Now for the two NFL games that we didn't post earlier and these will count in our overall records Washington @ Dallas (-5.5) and Giants @ Philly (-7.5). Still kind of tough not knowing about Romo, but Vick has been cleared to play. Dave likes the Boys to cover and Vince likes the Skins and we both like the Giants to cover.
Going to throw up some bonus picks, just some thoughts from Vince...
Florida -19.5 against Kentucky. Gators roll
South Carolina @ home against Vanderbilt +16. Vanderbilt is under rated and should play a solid game here.
Packers @ Bears I look for a lot of points to be scored here with the over of 46 being a solid bet.
Finally, we look for Wyoming to cover the +21.5 against Nebraska. Playing in that altitude is just different and I think it gets to Nebraska later in the game.
Also, hope you took the under bet last night, it was close but stayed on the under. Lots of turnovers which we thought would happen and one at the end to save the under.
Now some thoughts from Dave...
I like that Vince is going with ATL. I also think Minnesota could in fact capture that elusive first win, but I will stick with gunslinger Stafford and WR phenom Calvin Johnson.
I am going to go the other way with Vandy/South Carolina. I think the Commodores are in for a long day between the air assault from Garcia and sensational sophmore RB Marcus Lattimore pounding it out on the ground. Lattimore is coming off a career best 246 yards on 37 carries for 3 TDs. I see no reason why he shouldn't carry that over against Vandy, given that this could potentially be a high scoring affair. Don't look for the "ole ball coach" to let up off the gas pedal in Columbia.
Another game I like is Baylor playing host to Owls of Rice. Baylor should easily cover the 20 and possibly a lot more. Griffin should look to boast his Heisman stock as he shreds the Owl's D both through the air as well as on the ground. I like the Bears, I think they are capable of putting 50 points up a game, especially with the Defense of the Owls ranking 82nd.
Florida should roll against Kentucky, the Wildcats would be better suited for flag football played against the student body. The Wildcats should be stripped of the Wild in those cats. Will be luck to to come away with 3 scores. They could call that a victory.
Now for the two NFL games that we didn't post earlier and these will count in our overall records Washington @ Dallas (-5.5) and Giants @ Philly (-7.5). Still kind of tough not knowing about Romo, but Vick has been cleared to play. Dave likes the Boys to cover and Vince likes the Skins and we both like the Giants to cover.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
NC State @ Cincy
We have a huge matchup tonight, NC State going to Cincinnati. Honestly, it isn't a big matchup in my book, but with a game tonight we figured we would put something up. Cincy is at home and favored by 7 with the o/u at 60.5. Neither one of these teams have played anybody with the exception of Cincy playing Tenn. NC State has played Wake Forest, Liberty, and South Alabama, with 2 wins and a 7 point loss to Wake. Cincy has also played Akron and Austin Peay. We are not big fans of this game, and will either stay completely away because we don't know enough about either team, or lay a small bet on NC State and the Under. We think there will be quite a few turnovers, and we are assuming that these turnovers won't be pick 6 or fumble returned for TD's and maybe lead to some field goals. NC State won this matchup last year 30-19 but of course last year doesn't matter. The stats we are looking at the most is that Cincy is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games, the under is 15-3 in NC State's last 18 games and the under for Cincy is 9-1 in their last 10 games.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
The Picks This Week
Dave's Thoughts
Oklahoma vs Missouri - This probably won't be a popular pick given our location, but Oklahoma is poised to blowout, thats right, "BLOWOUT" Mizzou. Oklahoma is coming off their best out of conference road win under Stoops since making its Championship run in 2000. They also haven't forgotten coming into Columbia last year ranked #1, College Game Day in town and dropping one to Tigers, ending their championship hopes. Bobby Stoops will have his troops determined and focused not to look ahead and to finish off a far inferior opponent in the Missouri Tigers. The only way the Tigers cover this 21.5 spread is to hope that the Sooners staff shows mercy and puts in the reserves early. It's not the homer in me that is making this pick, with all that's at stake and the losses to Mizzou's secondary, and OU's tenacious D, the result seems like nature simply taking its course.
UPSET ALERT Arkansas @ Alabama - Bobby Petrino takes his squad into Tuscaloosa as the 8th most explosive offense and 17th best defense. Those numbers could be skewed a lil for the most part due to all the cupcakes that both squads have played so far. But opening up SEC play for both teams, the Hogs clearly have a balanced offense and a sound defense. If the can limit Alabama's big pass plays and keep things in front of them, they will be in the mix to potentially shock the Tide in Tuscaloosa. This will be Alabama's first game this year that the offense might be better then the Tide Defense. With Joe Adams, Greg Childs, Cobi Hamilton, Jarius Wright being thrown to be Tyler Wilson, it will be more difficult for Alabama to account for all these weapons. If Knile Davis doesn't go down for the season, this Arkansas team is a likely choice to win the west. They are going to need strong contributions from Adams and Wingo out of the backfield for the upset.
LSU @ West Virginia - The Mountaineers are capable of putting some points on the board and with Geno Smith playing as well as any QB in the country right now. Over 1008 yards through 3 games with 7 TDS and 1 INT and ranks 4th in the nation in passing yards. He is a smart QB that is going to put his team into a position to win because he limits his mistakes, and that's what West Virginia has to do to shock this stout LSU defense. Primetime game from Mountaineer field, the Tigers are in for a rude awakening if they think they won't have a dog fight on their hands. I could tell West Virginia has won 16 of its last 17 home games and LSU has won 35 straight non-conference regular season games. Come Saturday night, its not about streaks or stats, its going to be the environment, the crowd, one the most prolific offenses, and that thing in their chest that sets them apart, heart, that's going to potentially upset the kittens and send them back to Baton Rouge stunned.
LOCK Kansas City @ San Diego - I hate to say, but the Chiefs would be most suited for a game against the Jayhawks with all the injuries and dissarray that has taken place over the first two weeks for Todd Haley. San Diego is usually a slow starter, but the way you get your football team going is to unfortunately, play the Chiefs. Phillip Rivers should be able to pick apart the Chiefs secondary at will and should be able to win the game with ease. The 15 points are a reason to give pause, but with the loss of Jamal Charles and team's inability to hang on to the ball along with dropped balls. I think this pick is sound one. For you fantasy players out there, if you have an offense weapon or have the Chargers D, this is a definite must start along with a must wager. The only positive outlook the Chiefs can cling too is Andrew Luck.
Vince's Thoughts
Missouri @ Oklahoma -- Dave is right about that not being a popular pick, you are giving a Tigers team 21.5 points on the road to a team they beat last year. The Tigers are a missed field goal away from being ranked in the top 15, and if that kick goes in and they are ranked at 15 there is no way they are getting that many points. Josey will ride wild, he is just as quick if not quicker than any of the players OU has on D and with this will create some passing lanes and running lanes for Franklin. Do I think MU wins? NO, but I think they will cover the points. Take Mizzou and the points here, this is a huge game for the Tigers, with a win they could ensure themselves of a Big 12 title. Landry Jones and that offense will create some big plays, but I don't think there will be enough to cover this huge line.
LSU @ West Virginia -- Another game Dave and I disagree on, and simply for me it is LSU's defense. They will shut down WV and their offensive attack. Take LSU and lay the points here, LSU by 6. LSU held Oregon to 27, yes I said 27 but Oregon averaged almost 60 points a game last year and by the end of the year will be back to averaging close to the same. WV is nowhere close to the offensive team that Oregon is and will be held down by a stout LSU D.
UPSET ALERT -- Miami @ Cleveland. Cleveland is favored by 2.5 points in this game, but I like Miami getting points, and to outright win. Miami was 6-2 on the road last year and 1-7 at home. That trend seems to be continuing with their 0-2 home start. Daniel Thomas emerged last week as a bonafide back, and Henne is serviceable with a receiver as good as Brandon Marshall. I look for the Fins to outright win this game and shut down Colt McCoy. Take the points and the Fins!
LOCK -- Oregon @ Arizona Easy money here is on the Chiefs, but I will add another one. Dave is right though the Chiefs should be getting way more points, but I also like Oregon. Oregon won the game last year 48-29 with some late scores by Arizona to make the drubbing they received look much more respectable. Arizona has been handed bad losses by OSU 37-14 and Stanford 37-10 already this year with the Stanford game being at home. Arizona is also not the same team they were last year. Oregon played some scrubs the last couple weeks to get their confidence back after losing to LSU in the opener, look for Oregon to roll here 52-25.
And now the picks...
49ers +1.5
Pats -9
Texans +4 -- This is a one score game just not sure if it will be a field goal or TD
Dolphins +2.5
Titans -6.5
*Lions -3.5 Dave likes the Lions to win on the road Vince likes the Vikings and the points. Look for the Vikings to win outright!
Panthers -3.5 Look for Newton to get his first win this week!
Chargers -15
Jets -3.5
Cards -3
Packers -3.5 The Bears can't protect Cutler so won't be able to exploit the Green Bay secondary like the Saints and Panthers.
Steelers -10.5
Ravens -3.5
*Atlanta +1.5 Atlanta goes in and wins in Tamba, Bucs not good at home ATS.
Staying away from Giants/Eagles and Redskins/Cowboys until we know the status of Romo and Vick.
College Games
Arkansas +11
Dave has WV (+6) and Vince has LSU (-6)
Michigan -10
Dave has UNC (+6) Vince has G Tech (-6)
Notre Dame -7
FSU -3
OK State +3 Both kind of like OK State to win outright.
Dave has OU (-21.5) Vince has MU (+21.5)
USC -3
Oregon -15.5
Georgia -10.5
Miami -13.5 Miami will just out athlete the Wildcats.
Oklahoma vs Missouri - This probably won't be a popular pick given our location, but Oklahoma is poised to blowout, thats right, "BLOWOUT" Mizzou. Oklahoma is coming off their best out of conference road win under Stoops since making its Championship run in 2000. They also haven't forgotten coming into Columbia last year ranked #1, College Game Day in town and dropping one to Tigers, ending their championship hopes. Bobby Stoops will have his troops determined and focused not to look ahead and to finish off a far inferior opponent in the Missouri Tigers. The only way the Tigers cover this 21.5 spread is to hope that the Sooners staff shows mercy and puts in the reserves early. It's not the homer in me that is making this pick, with all that's at stake and the losses to Mizzou's secondary, and OU's tenacious D, the result seems like nature simply taking its course.
UPSET ALERT Arkansas @ Alabama - Bobby Petrino takes his squad into Tuscaloosa as the 8th most explosive offense and 17th best defense. Those numbers could be skewed a lil for the most part due to all the cupcakes that both squads have played so far. But opening up SEC play for both teams, the Hogs clearly have a balanced offense and a sound defense. If the can limit Alabama's big pass plays and keep things in front of them, they will be in the mix to potentially shock the Tide in Tuscaloosa. This will be Alabama's first game this year that the offense might be better then the Tide Defense. With Joe Adams, Greg Childs, Cobi Hamilton, Jarius Wright being thrown to be Tyler Wilson, it will be more difficult for Alabama to account for all these weapons. If Knile Davis doesn't go down for the season, this Arkansas team is a likely choice to win the west. They are going to need strong contributions from Adams and Wingo out of the backfield for the upset.
LSU @ West Virginia - The Mountaineers are capable of putting some points on the board and with Geno Smith playing as well as any QB in the country right now. Over 1008 yards through 3 games with 7 TDS and 1 INT and ranks 4th in the nation in passing yards. He is a smart QB that is going to put his team into a position to win because he limits his mistakes, and that's what West Virginia has to do to shock this stout LSU defense. Primetime game from Mountaineer field, the Tigers are in for a rude awakening if they think they won't have a dog fight on their hands. I could tell West Virginia has won 16 of its last 17 home games and LSU has won 35 straight non-conference regular season games. Come Saturday night, its not about streaks or stats, its going to be the environment, the crowd, one the most prolific offenses, and that thing in their chest that sets them apart, heart, that's going to potentially upset the kittens and send them back to Baton Rouge stunned.
LOCK Kansas City @ San Diego - I hate to say, but the Chiefs would be most suited for a game against the Jayhawks with all the injuries and dissarray that has taken place over the first two weeks for Todd Haley. San Diego is usually a slow starter, but the way you get your football team going is to unfortunately, play the Chiefs. Phillip Rivers should be able to pick apart the Chiefs secondary at will and should be able to win the game with ease. The 15 points are a reason to give pause, but with the loss of Jamal Charles and team's inability to hang on to the ball along with dropped balls. I think this pick is sound one. For you fantasy players out there, if you have an offense weapon or have the Chargers D, this is a definite must start along with a must wager. The only positive outlook the Chiefs can cling too is Andrew Luck.
Vince's Thoughts
Missouri @ Oklahoma -- Dave is right about that not being a popular pick, you are giving a Tigers team 21.5 points on the road to a team they beat last year. The Tigers are a missed field goal away from being ranked in the top 15, and if that kick goes in and they are ranked at 15 there is no way they are getting that many points. Josey will ride wild, he is just as quick if not quicker than any of the players OU has on D and with this will create some passing lanes and running lanes for Franklin. Do I think MU wins? NO, but I think they will cover the points. Take Mizzou and the points here, this is a huge game for the Tigers, with a win they could ensure themselves of a Big 12 title. Landry Jones and that offense will create some big plays, but I don't think there will be enough to cover this huge line.
LSU @ West Virginia -- Another game Dave and I disagree on, and simply for me it is LSU's defense. They will shut down WV and their offensive attack. Take LSU and lay the points here, LSU by 6. LSU held Oregon to 27, yes I said 27 but Oregon averaged almost 60 points a game last year and by the end of the year will be back to averaging close to the same. WV is nowhere close to the offensive team that Oregon is and will be held down by a stout LSU D.
UPSET ALERT -- Miami @ Cleveland. Cleveland is favored by 2.5 points in this game, but I like Miami getting points, and to outright win. Miami was 6-2 on the road last year and 1-7 at home. That trend seems to be continuing with their 0-2 home start. Daniel Thomas emerged last week as a bonafide back, and Henne is serviceable with a receiver as good as Brandon Marshall. I look for the Fins to outright win this game and shut down Colt McCoy. Take the points and the Fins!
LOCK -- Oregon @ Arizona Easy money here is on the Chiefs, but I will add another one. Dave is right though the Chiefs should be getting way more points, but I also like Oregon. Oregon won the game last year 48-29 with some late scores by Arizona to make the drubbing they received look much more respectable. Arizona has been handed bad losses by OSU 37-14 and Stanford 37-10 already this year with the Stanford game being at home. Arizona is also not the same team they were last year. Oregon played some scrubs the last couple weeks to get their confidence back after losing to LSU in the opener, look for Oregon to roll here 52-25.
And now the picks...
49ers +1.5
Pats -9
Texans +4 -- This is a one score game just not sure if it will be a field goal or TD
Dolphins +2.5
Titans -6.5
*Lions -3.5 Dave likes the Lions to win on the road Vince likes the Vikings and the points. Look for the Vikings to win outright!
Panthers -3.5 Look for Newton to get his first win this week!
Chargers -15
Jets -3.5
Cards -3
Packers -3.5 The Bears can't protect Cutler so won't be able to exploit the Green Bay secondary like the Saints and Panthers.
Steelers -10.5
Ravens -3.5
*Atlanta +1.5 Atlanta goes in and wins in Tamba, Bucs not good at home ATS.
Staying away from Giants/Eagles and Redskins/Cowboys until we know the status of Romo and Vick.
College Games
Arkansas +11
Dave has WV (+6) and Vince has LSU (-6)
Michigan -10
Dave has UNC (+6) Vince has G Tech (-6)
Notre Dame -7
FSU -3
OK State +3 Both kind of like OK State to win outright.
Dave has OU (-21.5) Vince has MU (+21.5)
USC -3
Oregon -15.5
Georgia -10.5
Miami -13.5 Miami will just out athlete the Wildcats.
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Thinking we will have a lock of the century pick each week, maybe an upset special each week, who even knows where we will go with this. Looking at the Thursday and Friday college games don't see much of anything interesting there, but we will get some picks up here soon for the week.
Early Lines... the numbers will be associated with the home team, so if the home team is favored it would look like -4 or if they are dogs it will be +4.
49ers @ Bengals -1.5
Pats @ Bills +9
Texans @ Saints -4
Dolphins @ Browns -2.5
Broncos @ Titans -6.5
Lions @ Vikings 3.5
Jags @ Panthers -3.5
Chiefs @ Chargers -15 (OUCH)
Jet @ Raiders 3.5
Cards @ Seahawks 3
Packers @ Bears 3.5
Steelers @ Colts 10.5
Ravens @ Rams not posted yet
Atlanta @ Tampa -1.5
Giants @ Eagles not posted yet
Washington @ Dallas not posted yet
Games we are looking at in college.
Arkansas @ Alabama -11
LSU @ West Virginia 6
San Diego St @ Mich -10
UNC @ G Tech -6
ND @ Pitt 7
FSU @ Clemson 3
OK State @ Texas A&M -3
MU @ OU -21.5
USC @ ASU -3
Oregon @ Arizona 15.5
Georgia @ Miss 10.5
K State @ Miami -13.5
Picks to come either later today or tomorrow
Early Lines... the numbers will be associated with the home team, so if the home team is favored it would look like -4 or if they are dogs it will be +4.
49ers @ Bengals -1.5
Pats @ Bills +9
Texans @ Saints -4
Dolphins @ Browns -2.5
Broncos @ Titans -6.5
Lions @ Vikings 3.5
Jags @ Panthers -3.5
Chiefs @ Chargers -15 (OUCH)
Jet @ Raiders 3.5
Cards @ Seahawks 3
Packers @ Bears 3.5
Steelers @ Colts 10.5
Ravens @ Rams not posted yet
Atlanta @ Tampa -1.5
Giants @ Eagles not posted yet
Washington @ Dallas not posted yet
Games we are looking at in college.
Arkansas @ Alabama -11
LSU @ West Virginia 6
San Diego St @ Mich -10
UNC @ G Tech -6
ND @ Pitt 7
FSU @ Clemson 3
OK State @ Texas A&M -3
MU @ OU -21.5
USC @ ASU -3
Oregon @ Arizona 15.5
Georgia @ Miss 10.5
K State @ Miami -13.5
Picks to come either later today or tomorrow
Monday, September 19, 2011
Dave and Vince's Picks
Dave and myself have started making picks here in the office, keeping a spreadsheet and a record each week with our picks against the spread. We have had quite a bit of success so we figured we would start sharing our picks each week in the hopes of getting some traffic and then in the future maybe selling our services. In reality we will probably never get that far, but what the heck, why not try it out and see what happens. We already are making the picks and we love football, so why not get this out there and see what happens.
We started with the opening week of college football, picking the top 25. There were 23 games that week because a couple of ranked teams played each other. We both were 13-9-1 in week one and have not looked back. Week 1 of the NFL was a little tough with Dave going 8-7-1 and myself going 9-6-1. Dave also had a rough week 2 of NCAA with a 5-4-1 mark, but college helped me out and I went 7-2-1. This week in the NFL Dave went an unbelievable 13-1-1 and I was 12-2-1. Dave also swept his college picks going 10-0 with me right there at 9-1. This puts me at 50-20-5 and Dave at 49-21-5. If you think about this in terms of betting, simple $100 bets on all the games we pick and with proper 10% juice the numbers break down like this... you would have laid $7500 to place 75 $100 bets. You (using my picks) lose 20 of them which is $2000 out the door. You would have pushed 5 of them which would give you $500 back because it is as though the bet didn't exist. You would also have won 50 bets which gets you your $5000 back plus $4545 in winnings. So do the math here you laid $7500, and now in your account or on paper or whatever you would have $10045 which gives you a profit of $2545. If you were to use Dave's picks you would have $9854.10 which would still be up $2354.10. Either way it looks pretty good. I have attached the spreadsheet that we use and you can view our picks there. Typically we don't pick overs or unders, but as this grows we can start adding that in as well.
By the way trying to get this spreadsheet added is a lot more difficult than I would have imagined. Still trying thx
We started with the opening week of college football, picking the top 25. There were 23 games that week because a couple of ranked teams played each other. We both were 13-9-1 in week one and have not looked back. Week 1 of the NFL was a little tough with Dave going 8-7-1 and myself going 9-6-1. Dave also had a rough week 2 of NCAA with a 5-4-1 mark, but college helped me out and I went 7-2-1. This week in the NFL Dave went an unbelievable 13-1-1 and I was 12-2-1. Dave also swept his college picks going 10-0 with me right there at 9-1. This puts me at 50-20-5 and Dave at 49-21-5. If you think about this in terms of betting, simple $100 bets on all the games we pick and with proper 10% juice the numbers break down like this... you would have laid $7500 to place 75 $100 bets. You (using my picks) lose 20 of them which is $2000 out the door. You would have pushed 5 of them which would give you $500 back because it is as though the bet didn't exist. You would also have won 50 bets which gets you your $5000 back plus $4545 in winnings. So do the math here you laid $7500, and now in your account or on paper or whatever you would have $10045 which gives you a profit of $2545. If you were to use Dave's picks you would have $9854.10 which would still be up $2354.10. Either way it looks pretty good. I have attached the spreadsheet that we use and you can view our picks there. Typically we don't pick overs or unders, but as this grows we can start adding that in as well.
By the way trying to get this spreadsheet added is a lot more difficult than I would have imagined. Still trying thx
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