Big Big Week!

Okay Folks, I am back and here is the skinny on what you need to know. Which of the following is NOT true. I have a huge donkey dick, I got a new job, Women love me, or I wasn't perfect in my picks last week? Well many women can attest to the Donkey Cock, Someone else is signing my paycheck, Women do adore me, Yes Vince they do. Just ask your mom, and your sister, but yes picks weren't were I expected for the week last week, however, i did still manage to come out ahead $200.00. And so far so good, as I had the G-Men over the Panthers. Here are my picks and breakdown. Good to be back in the swing of things.

Clemson @ Florida St ( -14.5) 14.5 are you kidding me? Don't get me wrong Florida St. looks salty on offense........against Murray State and Savannah State. And Wake Forrest offense was horrible, ranking 117th with a defense of 94th in the nation. Impressive!! However, the Clemson Tigers will be the Seminoles first true test against a quality school. Clemson is averaging almost 40pts a game. I look for this one to be very close. Clemson could even pull the upset.

Rutgers @ Arkanas (-9) This line was originally at 7, when the news hit the Wilson is now back in the saddle for the Hogs, it jumped to 9. I like the Hogs this week at home after a bumpy road the last 2 weeks. Hopefully Wilson will steer the ship as John L seems just happy to be there and taking 850k for 10 months. Look for Knile Davis to breakout as well. If the Hogs don't blowout Rutgers, its going to be a long and difficult season for the Hog Fans than what it already has been. If they Hogs lose, John L. Smith is out right after the game, he doesn't even get to do the press conference afterwards. He goes straight from the locker room to the court room!

Miami @ Georgia Tech(-14)  Did you happen to catch Miami's last home game. It looked as if it were a spring game. No one there. Does anyone care? Prolly not, but the Hurricanes should respond to face a run heavy attack from the Yellow Jackets. If the Hurricanes can minimize the laps on Defense, they should be able to stay within 2 touches of them. I like Miami to straight win this game, although Vince would disagree. Miami's D looked terrible vs K State, but I think they bounce back, cover for sure and possibly stun the Yellow Jackets.

Mizzou @ South Carolina (-10.5) Mizzou covers if not wins this game as well. Conner Shaw will most definitely get hurt at some point in the game as he continues to nurse that sore shoulder. Vince said before this season that Franklin was a heisman candidate ( I know, dont laugh), but he should be able to have some success against south carolina on the ground and through the air, I like the Tigers and company to stun the ole ball coach.

Kansas State @ Oklahoma (-14.5) Obviously I love the Sooners, and at times that has flawed my ability to see past their shortcummings, however, the Sooners are poised to lay the beat down to Snyder and Company, Bob Stoops is 7-1 vs Snyder and will be 8-1 come Saturday night. The Sooners had a scare on Week 1 against UTEP but seem to be firing on all cylniders now. Stoops likes what the team has done is such as short time. If Bobby's happy, so am I. Sooners roll Baby!!!!!!!

Baylor -7

Clemson +14.5

West Virginia -26

Vandy +15.5

Ark -9

KU + 9

Oregon -22

UCLA -7

TCU -18

Cal +16.5

Auburn +20.5

Miami +14.5

Mizzou +10.5

ND -5

Oklahoma -14.5

Rams +7.5

TB +8.5

Minn + 7

Lions -3.5

Dolphins +2.5
Bengals +4

Saints -8.5

Cleveland +3

Indy -3

Eagles -3

Falcons +3

Texans -1.5

Raiders +4

Baltimore -2.5

GB - 3

Wow, we are going to have some fun with this. I will admit you didn't do great with your picks, and you do have a new job, but I am staying away from the other two. As far as my mom and sister, we are probably even because of what your wife and I have going on. Check her phone records man, you will see a few calls and texts and games shared between us. Guess things are square there. 

Clemson @ Florida State -14.5 -- we are different on this one. Florida State dominates in the trenches, honestly like Alabama. Am I saying they are Bama, no, but their lines are pretty comparable. And this is where they will exploit Clemson and slow down their play makers. Don't be surprised if FSU wins by more than 3 TDS. FSU, with the dominating performance this week, will try to crash the national title party. 

Let's see, I like the Hogs too, you are right I don't think Miami can win, but I think they cover, you are spot on with your Mizzou breakdown, and as much as I want to take K State, you are again spot on with that one. OU wins big and makes a statement that they are also going to try to crash the national title party. FSU and Oklahoma are telling Bama, LSU, and Oregon, they want to be part of the party too. 

New England @ Baltimore -2.5 -- Dave and I disagree on this game and to be honest with you I don't normally do this, but this is probably my play of the year. This is quite possibly a 7 unit bet. If you watch the tape on these 2 teams, you will see something crazy. New England is actually better on defense than the Ravens. The Ravens are slow and old. Ray Lewis has been out of position on coverage multiple times already, he isn't explosive to the ball, he is getting old. Hey Ray, you can't stab old age have it go away and get away with it. Anybody seen Haloti Nada lately? Oh that is right they said last year he was playing with an injury, well apparently he still is because he is getting blown off the ball, destroyed. Ed Reed? Yeah he is old and taking more chances than ever. The Eagles turn the ball over 4, 5 times against this defense and they still couldn't win? Which leads to my next point, Flacco, you really think you are the best QB in the league? You have another thing coming buddy. You are good yes, but not great. And with this improved NE defense you are going to look pedestrian again like you did last week against the Eagles. Ray Rice had 16 carries 99 yards, and you can't win? Patriots will exploit Ray Lewis and his inability to cover Gronk and you can take this to the bank Patriots win by double digits. Patriots 34 Ravens 17

One more thing I would like to add that I was talking to Dave about. 58% of penalties in the NFL have been thrown on the road team in the first two weeks. Did you see the record of the home teams against the spread last week? 12-4. (depending on when you got in it could have been 11-5) Either way that is sick and guess who else knows this? The league. And now the officials. That will swing back and favor the road teams this week. It was very evident last night, not in number because there were 5 penalties on the Giants and 3 on the Panthers, but in things that didn't get called. Like on the first possession where Eli gets sacked throws the ball from his knee and they call it incomplete? Really? And where was Carolina on the challenge, I mean I saw that play live before they slowed it down. And then Cam Newton gets hit in the face, guess what that is a penalty. It was weird for sure, but I expect road teams to dominate this week which will be evident in my picks. I have 11 road teams covering this week, not just because of these officials, but because that is the way the NFL works.

Baylor -7  (they are playing the team that beat Arkansas and took Auburn to OT)

FSU +14.5

West Virginia -26

Vandy +15.5

Ark -9

KU + 9

Oregon -22

UCLA -7

Virginia +18  (this is an underrated team)

USC -16.5  (after getting out coached and blown up Kiffin and the boys bounce back)

LSU -20.5  (Auburn is the worst team in the SEC)

Miami +14.5

Mizzou +10.5

MICH +5  (huge ND fan I just haven't bought in yet, this is one I am ok with losing)

Oklahoma -14.5

Bears -7.5  (if it wasn't for the Pats, this would be my play of the week. The Rams are slow on grass and will have a well rested (played last Thurs) and pissed off Bears team. Good luck!

TB +8.5

SF - 7  (I look at this as a let down game for the 49ers, but Minn is bad. 21-6 Niners)

Lions -3.5

Jets -2.5 (tough game but the Jets get Revis back and if the Jets stop Bush, a rookie QB will get killed)

Bengals +4
Chiefs +8.5 (this isn't the homer in me, but upset alert. Chiefs keep it close and have a chance at the end. Remember the start last year, hammered in the first two games and go to San Diego and lose 20-17. This is going to be a great game to watch)

Bills -3 (CJ Spiller leads the league in rushing, the Browns can't stop him. If McCoy was still their QB I would take them but Weeden is a real shit bum.)

Indy -3

Eagles -3

Falcons +3

Texans -1.5

Pitt -4 (by the end of the year the Raiders will be the worst team in football. This gets ugly)

Pats +2.5

Seahawks +3 (anybody know how good Seattle is at home? they prove the win over Dallas isn't a fluke. This team is hard to beat at home my friends)

Thursday Night Football

As we have done exhaustive research on tonight's game Dave and I agree. The Panthers take it down. The Giants are coming off a tough home game against the Bucs, edging out a 41-34 victory. They got banged up quite a bit though. Bradshaw being out doesn't really hurt them that much but losing Nicks is huge. The O line is not that great and Carolina can get after the passer. All that together means the short quick passing game is important, but with Nicks being out that hurts the Giants short quick passing game big time. Newton is a beast, and I don't see the Giants pass rush being able to stop him. He also has some weapons to throw to, so this could be a real coming out party for him on national television.

Giants 20 Panthers 27

Bonus game  Boise St -6 and the over 50.5 

Our Return to Success

Dave was with me last night and so that makes him 1-1 on the games we have actually posted and me an impressive 0-2. I have received some hate mail already this season, but for the most part it hasn't been too bad. I had a couple people tell me to jump off a bridge, which in all actuality is pretty fun if you are connected to a bungee rope. I am just glad I didn't post all my picks from last week because the threats would have been worse. I had 6 plays in college that I went 4-2 on, but the NFL was not my friend. I am almost sure if I posted the entire NFL picks last week things would have been way worse. I mean we only posted one game and I already have people telling me that they want to crap in my face, and others saying I am the opposite of a good handicapper, hell I even had a bar call me out because of the picks this year. Well here is what I have to say to all that, I trust in my handicapping skills, trust in the research I do, and trust that I did nothing last week. I didn't research one game and just kind of threw things together, and that is one reason I didn't actually post my picks. Dave will add some breakdown to a couple games here but I am just going to list my winners. (this turned out to be a complete lie and there is no breakdown winners listed only this week.) 10 college games and all the NFL games. Good luck

Vince
Carolina +2.5
NE -13.5
OAK -2.5
Vikes -1
Browns +7
Ravens +2
Jags +7
KC +3
TB +7
Cowboys -3 (although Seahawks are really good at home this is a weak play)
Skins -3.5
SD -6
Steelers -5
Detroit +6.5
Falcons -3

NCAA
USC -8.5  (Stanford is not good this year)
Texas -9.5
Missouri -6  (this is an easy double digit win, you think they are going to have snap issues and run fake punts?)
Bama -20 (I would probably take this at 30, ARK is not good and will implode from here for years)
TCU -21
Florida +3 (win outright)
ND +5.5 (they could win outright but like the points)
K State -28  (SNYDER that is all)
Northwestern -3.5 
Purdue -24

Dave

TB

NE

Saints 

Chiefs

Baltimore

Raiders

Browns

Texans

Dallas

Rams

Steelers

Titans

Lions

Broncos

USC

Texas

AZ ST.

Arkansas

TCU

Florida

ND

K-State

Northwestern

Purdue

Thursday Night Football

Well I feel like Dave hates making money so we are going to attack this with just me and my opinion, which for week 1 was pretty pathetic. Oh well it is a long season and I have a track record of winning, so I don't doubt how I handicap a game.

Going to focus on just tonight's game today and hopefully get some more breakdowns in here for you tomorrow. Tonight we have the Chicago Bears at the Green Bay Packers. First let us look at this line movement, it opened at -7 for the Packers. I have seen it as low as -4.5 and I think right now it is sitting at -5. So there has been quite a bit of movement on this one. Also the over has moved from 50 to 51, which is telling you that everybody thinks so points are going to be scored. Does anybody actually believe that the Packers can start 0-2 at home after a 15-1 season with a perfect regular season record at home with the only loss coming on the road to the Chiefs? Personally I think the Bears are good enough to win this game, but lets break this game down a little bit.

The Packers D is still not very good. They really can't stop the run and with Mike Martz gone, they are more than likely to actually run the ball with Matt Forte and Michael Bush. That could be really dangerous and really open things up for Cutler who has a lot of weapons. Anybody here of Brandon Marshall? Cutler also has Earl Bennett and Devin Hester to throw to. With the Pack not able to stop the run the Bears are going to be able to put up some points. On the other side of the ball Urlacher is questionable and probably won't play much and Tillman is dinged up I feel the Packers are also going to put up some points. I think the week 1 trend of the most points scored in week 1 continues here tonight. Even with Jennings out Aaron Rodgers is too good to keep quiet, and he will distribute the ball all over the field. Cedric Benson will remain pretty quiet, but might be used in the passing game. The Packers will fight and claw, heck they are Super Bowl Champions (one year removed) this team knows how to win and they don't lose at home. The Bears D is not the 49ers D, and won't be able to slow things down completely, I was initially leaning towards Chicago 31 GB 30 with a last second field goal winning it, but I am sticking with the home team here to sneak out a victory, possibly a come from behind win with some late heroics from Discount Double Check.

My Prediction Packers 30 Bears 28  
The best bet here is the over, don't you dare think that points aren't going to be scored. Good luck and check back tomorrow for some weekend updates.

NFL SEASON OPENER

I will probably go on a little rant today, and by no means is it to share my political views but to express my anger with the season starting on a Wednesday. For those of you that don't know why the season is starting on a Wednesday instead of a Thursday, it is because of one President Obama. That is right, he decided that he was going to have his convention on a Thursday evening, forcing the NFL to move their game to a Wednesday. I read somewhere else that for this he should be arrested for treason. Messing with the NFL to what? Have a big party to let people know he is running for reelection? Really? Pretty sure we all knew he was going to run, which is fine, but to throw in our faces that he can do whatever, including moving the start of the NFL season just crosses a line in my book. Like my friend said that alone is a reason for him to not vote for Obama. Again I want to emphasize this isn't about democrat or republican, it is about the NFL and jacking with the start of the season. Honestly this change would really upset me if the Chiefs had to move their game to accommodate him. Oh he wants to give a speech about nothing, better move the Chiefs game to Saturday. Change, remember when that was all he talked about in his campaign? Well congrats it took almost 4 years but the one change you have been able to make is the change of the NFL season and that really grinds my gears.

With that I figure it is time to actually break down a game, the first game of the NFL season. Dallas Cowboys at the New York Giants.I think this game is pretty easy, Dallas is weak on the offensive line and the Giants have a huge pass rush. I think that ultimately costs the Cowboys the game. One other stat I am looking at is the last 13 Super Bowl winners have won their opening game. That trend continues tonight. Sure Tony Romo is good early in the year, but I actually think this year he might start slow and look more like Eli late in the year. The Giants have won 7 of 9 of the last match ups and they are at home. I do think that this will be a battle, I was initially thinking the Cowboys could hit a big play and find a way but with Whitten out and that questionable offensive line I realized that the Giants are the better team in the trenches. Giants are a 4 point favorite and will find a way to cover.
Giants 28 Cowboys 23

Oh and Dave didn't get a breakdown in but he is on the Cowboys... we will continue our records from last year and keep everything up to date this year as well. Good luck

ATS PICK EM LEAGUE

Well well well, football season is literally right around the corner and it is time to get you guys back and in the habit of coming here for Dave and Vince's excellent insight and breakdown of the games and the spreads. You can't argue with the results that we produced last year, and I would expect the same or even better results this year.

With that, we are adding a new angle for you. Some of you might not actually want to go out and gamble, or you are thinking about it just don't know how you are going to do, well I have a solution for you. It is an against the spread pick em league. This league incorporates both College Football and the NFL. 15 college games and all the NFL games. The lines are locked in on Wednesday and will not adjust after that to stay consistent for everybody. So each week you are picking the games with spreads involved, something different than your normal pick em league. This really gives you a chance to see how you would stack up if you were to place wagers regularly. The league itself costs $100 for the year. There will be weekly payouts, and if we get enough people in it there will be an overall winner prize as well. The other fun thing here is that you will be competing against both Dave and Vince, as they are in this league. If we break down a game and you are on the other side, guess what, you can make your pick and talk trash in a comment if you were right. We aren't always right, and like I have said before the way to make money is to be right 55% of the time, 55% over time will make you a consistent winner cashing in over a long season.

So with that here is the link and the password to the league, let us know if you have any problems and we will get it straightened out for you. Good luck and LET'S GET READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!!!

http://a-t-s.football.cbssports.com/e?ttag=FFB12_cbsinv

Our Pool password is: tgfih.2011

Crazy Bowl Friday

Tulsa/BYU -- Personally I can't get some of the games that BYU has played this year where they just looked horrible. Take Tulsa and lay the 1 point. Basically another pick em game.

Not sure how much value you put into the Sagarin ratings but Iowa State would be Rutgers toughest opponent this year. Rutgers would only be 9th on Iowa State's schedule. Despite the record, ISU is playing their best ball of the year these last 4 weeks or so(only losses being the #9 and #11 ranked teams). The only advantage I can see for Rutgers is they are closer to NYC so it will be like a home game for them. ISU played decent at Oklahoma and pretty well at Kansas State. We also played at Connecticut earlier in the year and won........Rutgers played at Connecticut the last game of the year and got piss pounded. All in all I feel pretty comfortable with an ISU win.
This is a pick em game and I don't think it could be put any better by my friend. I am on Iowa State as well!

Wake Forest/Mississippi State -7 -- I really don't like this game so I probably won't be on it, but I think Mississippi State is the better team and if they really want to be there they should be able to roll Wake, but again I will probably stay away.

Iowa/Oklahoma -13.5 -- Oh boy, OU and all the stuff going on in their program letting 8 players go, not sure what to think here. Landry Jones hasn't thrown a TD in 3 games, and has looked pedestrian. All he has done is hurt his draft status and probably at best dropped to a late first round/second round kind of pick. If I have to bet this game I will end up taking the Sooners and laying the points, mainly on Dave's opinion saying they will win by 3 touchdowns. Tough situation though, but maybe Landry will finish strong and head to the draft!