Prop Bets = Sucker Bets

Coming off my first losing weekend of the year, I decided that the Monday night game was dangerous and something to stay away from, well with respect to the line. I decided I wanted some action on it so I decided to look at the prop bets. I actually ended up making 13 prop bets on this game and here they are....

1)Baltimore's first scoring play of the game will be a TD pass +175
2)Total Field Goals in the game over 3.5 +145
3)Team with Longest Field Goal in the game (JAGS) -110
4)Team with most First downs Balt -3.5 -120
5)Baltimore Final score odd number -125
6)Jacksonville Final score odd number -125
7)Baltimore last score with be a field goal or safety +160
8)Baltimore first score will be a TD -150
9)Jacksonville first score of the game will be a field goal +125
10)Longest field goal of the game over 44.5 yards -115
11)First score of the game.. Jacksonville FG +385
12)First score of the game (pick fg/safety or TD) FG +110
13)Team to score first Jacksonville +155

1) Baltimore took 58 minutes to score but it was a passing TD
2) Jacksonville had 4 field goals, 3 of which were over 50 yards thanks cuz!
3) Jags were the only team to kick a field goal but 54 yds prob holds up Cundiff did miss a 52 yard field goal
4) Jacksonville actually had more first downs so lost that one
5) Baltimore 7 points odd number check
6) Jacksonville 12, not odd, but that last field goal helped out
7) Baltimore last score field goal or safety no sir
8) Baltimore's first score was a TD
9) Jacksonville finally decided to kick a field goal, making their first score a FG
10) 54, 54, 51, all field goals longer than 44.5 yards
11) First score of the game by either team, Jacksonville FG, didn't know if this was going to happen, but it did finally.
12) First score of the game was a FG
13) Jacksonville scored first, in an ugly ugly game. Baltimore couldn't even get a first down.

What does this teach us? Honestly not much at all. It wasn't chasing money lost, it was just wanting some small action that did not involve that line. A line that moved to 11 points from 7 earlier in the week. Prop bets are very rarely good bets, if they provide odds that look great, it is because they are not really good bets at all. Vegas and whoever love people betting on the prop bets, the odds are in their favor big time, and very often impossible to hit. I got lucky, I just had a gut feeling about that game last night and I went with it. Remember, don't chase losses with a big bet on Sunday or Monday night, you may occasionally hit it, but the true successful gamblers look at it as a marathon not a sprint. This is a season long battle to win money, not trying to hit it big with one game, or get our money back on one game, it will burn you in the long run. Finally, if you want to make some small wagers on prop bets, know that it is ok, but it is not something I would make a habit of. I will occasionally throw money on the coin toss in the Super Bowl, or something like last night, but I would never do this every week, unless I somehow knew the quarter had 2 heads! Hope you had a better week than me, but look for a huge bounce back week. I feel very solid about the NFL and some very solid college games as well. Stay tuned for our picks.

Vince