Friday Updates and Breakdown

Well it is Friday and it is time for a couple changes, and time for us to lock in our picks! Vince is only changing 2 games this week and both are in the NFL, Vince is taking the Falcons to cover against the Lions with a breakdown to come, and he is taking the Redskins to cover and beat the Panthers also with a breakdown to come. This is going to be an exciting week of football, and we hope that you all enjoy watching it and hopefully we have some winning picks on here!

We had a comment that requested a breakdown of the Chiefs/Raiders, and also mentioned the alleged drug use on Vince's basketball team. First and foremost the team won 68-55, so they not only covered they put the game on the over. As far as drug use, there are no performance enhancing drugs that are being used, maybe some medical marijuana for a couple of the players. Thankfully this is a league that does not require drug testing, or the team might lose a couple players.

Now some thoughts from Vince....

Chiefs @ Raiders (-6). This line has moved quite a bit starting at 3, but with the addition of Carson Palmer the Raiders have became even greater favorites. I am not really sure that makes sense since he hasn't played in 9 months and he wasn't that good last year at all. Carson Palmer hasn't been the same since his knee injury and he put off having Tommy John's surgery to just rehab? Not sure that shoulder is that strong anymore to man the down the field attack the Raiders want to employ. The Raiders have won 8 straight division games, but the road team has covered 9 of the last 10 games in this series. The Chiefs are also 14-7 ATS as road dogs in the division in their last 21 games. I not only like the Chiefs to cover I like the Chiefs to win this game 24-20!

Redskins @ Panthers (-3). Initially I was on the Panthers and the Cam Newton band wagon just like 81% of the money in Vegas, but looking more and more at this game I think that the Skins contain Newton and find a way to win. The Redskins defense has not allowed 21 points to anybody this year, and Newton has been slowed lately. Also, their only win is against a lonely Jacksonville squad. I look for the Redskins to step up again defensively and use their strong run game to take some of the pressure off of John Beck. Skins win 16-13.

Falcons @ Lions (-3.5). Again initially leaning towards the Lions just like the 60% of betters in Vegas, but looking at this again I realize that teams that come off long losing streaks tend to fall hard with back to back blunders. Some stats to back this up, Mike Smith is 9-1 ATS when playing teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better. Here is an interesting stat I heard as well, teams that start 4-0 that are coming off a loss playing a team that is .500 or better coming off a win are 1-9 ATS. All signs here tell me to take the Falcons, straight up. The Lions defense has shown they can't stop the run and the Falcons are leaning more on Michael Turner again. Falcons 24-20!

Upset Special
Oklahoma State @ Missouri (+7). Oklahoma State comes in here riding high off some big wins, but I see this game going a completely different direction. Ok State has some trouble stopping the run and I look for Franklin and Josey to have huge days. With this that is a great defense, using your running game to keep OK State off the field. With that they are plus 5 in turnovers in their last two wins, and with Mizzou at home I don't see them turning the ball over. Brandon Weedon was a little off last week, but they were able to beat a Texas team that isn't that good. He didn't complete 60% of his passes, stepped out of the back of the end zone for a safety, and I just look for a similar performance here against Mizzou in Columbia. OK State always has a hiccup in their season when they are suppose to be great, and this is where it happens. I love the points but I think Mizzou wins the game outright. I think it will be pretty high scoring but not as high as many people think. I am taking the Tigers 36-30.

K State @ KU (+10.5). What a huge trap game for the Wildcats, they come in being a favorite for the first time in their last 5 games. They also have Oklahoma looming next week, but one thing Snyder coached teams don't do is look ahead and they don't lose to Kansas. Bill Snyder is 13-1 straight up and 13-1 ATS against Kansas. I just don't look for a let down here, and I look for K State to exploit that weak Kansas defense, so weak they are worst in the nation in points allowed. This game kind of reminds me of the Georgia Tech game, Kansas couldn't stop the run and won't be able to do it here. K State rolls!

And now some thoughts from Dave...

Texans @ Titans (-3). The Texans look to bounce back after a disappointing loss to Balitmore (29-14). With Andre Johnson still out, Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels must step up in the passing game. They also must get back to getting Arian Foster enough touches both in the running game as well as the passing game, he can be lethal in the open field. The Titans have struggled to run ball with any consistency this year, and the 30 million gauranteed man has not lived up to the hype. I look for the Titans to struggle on offense and Houston will get back to their high octane offense Kubiak is known for. The loss of Mario Williams will be a big blow to the D, but look for others to fill the gap. Houston wins 31-27.

Chiefs @ Raiders (-6) I am going to have to disagree with Vince on this one. A 18 month rusty over hyped QB Carson Palmer is better than a seasoned Matt Cassell any day of the week. With the Chiefs struggling to find an identity in the run game, they have turned to Jackie Battle, yes Jackie Battle, not really a go to guy but had a quality game last week against the winless Colts. The last 3 years he has a total of 51 carries for 118 yards, nothing to brag about. Now on the other side of the ball, Darren McFadden is one of the NFL top rushers and should shred this KC defense. I look for the Raiders to beat the Chiefs as they come out stale from their bye week. 31-17.

Arkansas @ Ole Miss : The Hogs roll into Oxford coming off back to back wins over #15 Auburn and #14 Texas A&M. The Rebels come off a 52-7 blowout suffered at the hands of the Crimson Tide. This game also has "BLOWOUT" written all over it. Houston Nutt has managed to do it again, run a program into the ground single handily and wonder what went wrong. Nutt will be blown out by his former team that has since been restored by Bobby Petrino. This should be total domination in every facet of the game. The defense should be keyed in as Nutt has 6 plays he calls, 4 runs, 1 pass, and 1 Wild Rebel/Wild Hog, whatever you wanna call it. He will no doubt run on 1st and 2nd down, pass on 3rd down because its 3rd and long and will punt the majority of his offensive possesions. I am sure the Rebel fans have grown to despise Nutt as Razorback Nation had. This one isn't pretty here. 55-13. Coach Nutt (I hate to even call him a coach) does have Kentucky, La Tech, and Miss St on the schedule, so he should manage at least 1 more win. PIG SOOOOOOIIIIIEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!


Oklahoma State @ Missouri : I am also going to disagree with Vince here. There is a reason the Pokes are ranked #4 and the Tigers are not. But we have come to learn that rankings don't secure the win. What will secure the win is Brandon Weedin and company. I like Mizzou, I think they are a quality team that can manage close games within their own enviroment, but I think the Pokes get it done in Columbia. Missouri 3 wins come against Miami (OH) 17-6, Western Illinois, 69-0 and Iowa State 52-17 (The minor league affiliate of the Big 12). I just don't see how the Tigers expect to handle the 2nd ranked offense in the nation. The Tigers schedule doesn't get any easier as they have A&M, Baylor and Texas their next three games. 45-24 Pokes!

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma (-28) : The Sooners went 2 for 6 last week in the red zone, leaving plenty of points off the board in their 30pt rout of the Jayhawks. Not this week, Stoops will have his troops poised to put away the Red Raiders quick and early. It's seriously beautiful to watch this Sooners offense take the field and operate with such ease and their arial attack is on par with the most season of offenses. Sooners D will aslo score 1 if not 2 Td's as the pass happy Red Raiders will no doubt be throwing the majority of the game as they will be playing from behind. Boomer Sooner baby, they roll 59-21.