Friday Afternoon Breakdown!

So does anybody believe me that Phillip Rivers is not good yet? I know Dave still doesn't, but that dude is making horrible decisions. As I left work last night sitting in my car on my drive home I literally thought to myself, "The Raiders could win this game!" I had to quickly talk myself out of such foolish thoughts, but sometimes you just need to listen to those gut feelings that come on you for no reason. Oakland dominated that game, Palmer looked decent, and Michael Bush looked better than McFadden. I give it to the Raiders, they have bounced back whereas the Chargers have packed it in for the year. AFC West is wide open but at this point I think it is a two horse race with the Raiders and the Chiefs.

Anybody catch Houston and the 73 they laid on Tulane? There was no score at the end of the first quarter? What? How is that? A defensive battle? Nope Houston lays 35 of the board in the 2nd quarter. 35 and then 24 in the third. Case Keenum had a decent game, 300+ yards and 3 TD's but their running game took over. Sims had 10 carries for 207 yards and 2 TD's and had another 5 catches for 45 yards. Houston has been on fire and trying to be a BCS bubble buster. Oh and Virginia Tech outlasted Georgia Tech. Pretty good game, Logan Thomas pretty much was all the offense for V Tech. He had 5 total TD's and helped lead them to victory. Ok enough about last night on to this weekend....

Thoughts from Vince...

Oregon @ Stanford -3.5. A matchup of #7 and #4, a huge game in the Pac 12. I have tried my best to look at this game objectively. For those of you that don't know my sister lives in Eugene and I am a pretty big Ducks fan. I will provide my best breakdown as objectively as possible. Oregon is only 5-4 ATS this season, but they have not covered some of the huge lines they are given, where Stanford is 9-0 ATS. Oregon is 8-1 in the last 9 games against Stanford including a 52-31 win last year in Eugene. Stats are pretty close in this game, Oregon scores 46, Stanford scores 48.2, Oregon gives up 21 and Stanford gives up 17 points per game. Stanford ranks 3rd in the nation against the rush, 23rd against the pass, and are 3rd in scoring. Oregon is 5th in scoring with an average defense. Here is what I keep coming back to 31 carries for 257 yards and 3 TD's, yes that is what LaMichael James did last year against the Cardinals. Daniel Thomas was also 20/29 for 238 3TD's 2 INT's with and additional 117 yards rushing on 15 carries and a TD. These aren't the same teams as last year, Stanford probably a little better, Oregon maybe not quite as good, but the same stars are in place, James, Thomas, Luck. I think this will be much more entertaining than a 9-6 game that we got last weekend. I have a slight lean to the Ducks to cover the 3.5 and actually if I am going to do that I am going to take them on the money line.
Ducks 38 Cardinals 35

Texas @ Missouri +1. Everybody is all of a sudden thinking Texas got healthy and looks like the old Texas because they beat Tech at home who lost to Iowa State? and they spanked Kansas? Who hasn't? Remember the 55-17 beat down that was given to them by OU? This Texas team is average across the board, 28th in scoring, 31st in points allowed, I mean they don't do anything great on either side of the ball. I would say they run the ball and stop the run better than most, but still not great. Don't get me wrong, Missouri is not great either, and I would say pretty average. They are 25th in scoring and 61st in points allowed. They did just give up 700 yards to Baylor too, which was horrible. This is the last time Missouri and Texas will play each other as part of the Big 12, and I think both teams are going to be fired up for that. Pinkle is 0-5 against Texas, never been able to beat them, and honestly probably one reason they are heading to the SEC. Ash or Franklin? Josey or Brown? Shipley and Davis or Moe and Egnew? Franklin, unless he turns the ball over 4 times, Josey is the best back in the big 12, and I would take either group of receivers. This game comes down to 1 thing, Missouri not taking quarters off, they can't take an entire quarter off and have a reasonable chance to win. They can't play from behind by 14, 17, 21 like they have all year or Texas will whitewash them. Pinkle got off the Oklahoma snide last year finally beating them, and I think he gets his lone win against Texas right here as he bids the Big 12 goodbye!
Longhorns 24 Tigers 35

Patriots @ Jets -1.5. The Jets are rolling and the Patriots are done. That is what is being said, Brady has nobody to throw to, and Belichick's genius on defense can't save him when he doesn't have players. Sanchez has a go to receiver in Plaxico, and the running game has came alive, and man that lock down defense is looking good again. Been there, done that, not listening to it. When have the Patriots been at their best? When everybody was against them, when their backs were against the wall, this is where they step up. Brady is 14-7 ATS as a dog, soon to be 15-7. Patriots really lose 3 in a row? Don't see that happening. Somebody tell me how they were 8 point favorites in New England, won the game, and now are dogs? Talk about a value line. If you take the 3 point home field advantage out of it (6 point swing) the Pats should still be favored by 2. You are getting 3-3.5 maybe 4 points of value there. It is all adjusted because of the perception that the Jets are getting better and the Patriots are finished. Jets beat the Chargers, wow they have self-imploded, they beat the Bills who are returning to reality, and they beat the Dolphins in their 3 game winning streak where the Patriots lost to a tough Pittsburgh team and on a last second play by the Giants and Eli Manning. Division game, should be a battle.
Patriots 24 Jets 16

Broncos @ Chiefs -3. The Broncos caught the Raiders off guard with the zone read option play. Don't worry, the Chiefs will be ready. They are going to force Tebow to beat them with his arm, and guess what, he can't do it. Sure everybody is thinking the Chiefs stink again, and trust me they aren't a good team, but they are better than these Broncos who without an onside kick would be 2-6. Of course the same could be said of the Chiefs, without a Rivers fumble the Chiefs would be 3-5. This is a division game, a game both teams want and need. In order to win this game the Chiefs need to stop the running game, and move the ball through the air. I am less nervous about this game though, then I was last weekend when Miami came in. Miami was hungry, been playing close games, and they were prepared and the Chiefs weren't. That woke the Chiefs up, and the Broncos traveling on back to back weeks isn't going to do them any favors.
Broncos 10 Chiefs 24

Texas A&M @ K State +5.5. Here is something interesting that I heard this week, and I by no means take credit for it but I thought I would pass along. Quarterback A. 58.3% completion 1223 yds 9 TD's 4 INT's 206 carries 906 yds 19 TD's. Quarterback B. 55.6% completion 1510 yds 7 TD's 10 INT's 203 carries 1115 yards and 18TD's. Who do you take? Personally I probably take A who is Collin Klein who also has 3 games left. QB B? Heisman Trophy winner Eric Crouch. Yup, staggering isn't it? K State is again getting no respect in a game they should be favored. They had it down to the last play last week against OK State. This team doesn't quit and just continues to play for this coach. OU killed them, not sure what happened there, and that clearly is why they are home dogs to a team that can't close games. A&M lost at home to Mizzou, and Mizzou lost to K State in Manhattan, yet K State is the home dog? I know Vegas and some wiseguys probably know something I don't, but I am on K State here, I will take the points but I like them straight up as well.
A&M 30 K State 35

Steelers @ Bengals +3. This game truly scares me. Cincy for real? I mean that defense is pretty darn good, and Andy Dalton and Green are on the same page, but who have they beat? The Browns, the Bills, the Jags, the Colts, the Seahawks and the Titans? 2 things scare me here, I don't know how good the Bengals truly are, and the public is all over Pitt. Vegas isn't going to continue to get it handed to them, see game last night, 91% of bets on San Diego. I think Big Ben is able to move the ball especially deep down the field, but they won't have much of a run game. Cincy will be tested this week, they will show how real they really are. Even if Cincy loses they can gain a lot of respect by keeping this game close, they also will get Pitt again and Baltimore twice, so very soon we will know if the rookies can hold up. I am taking Pitt, with a slight lean, to really hurt the Bengals playoff hopes.
Steelers 24 Bengals 18

Thoughts from Dave...

Nebraska @ Penn State: (3): Where to start here. This game could go either way. 1. Penn State could rally around the ongoing scandal that this institution faces and will continue to face for quite some time, they could upset the Huskers on adrenaline alone. 2. The most likely choice, will be that talent wins this game, the players on the field for Nebraska are better than the players at Penn State, however, this will be the first time in 46 years that JoePa will not be on the sideline. With all that has happened and all that is going to continue to happen, the Lions won't be able to overcome the sure to be hostile crowd and the atmosphere will definitely be filled with mixed emotions. In the long run, Nebraska wins this game with or without the events that have transpired over the past week. The students can turn over news vans and throw stones all they want to, there is nothing that will stop the Huskers from handing Penn State their 2nd loss of the season. Huskers win 38-17.

Oregon @ Stanford (-3.5) I think the Ducks come in and pull off the upset. I really don't know that you could call this an upset. The Ducks have just as impressive schedule vs record as Stanford does. Lets not forget the Ducks only loss came to the unbeaten and currently #1 ranks LSU, where the managed to put on 27 points in that ball game, the highest mark to date against the nations best defense. I look for Oregon to edge Luck and company in a barn burner.
41-34 Oregon.

Oklahoma St. @ Texas Tech (17.5) The Cowboys were pushed at home last week by the Wildcats and it was much closer than the Pokes would've liked it to have been, myself included. It's hit or miss with the Red Raiders, they put together a great performance in Norman and than look like shit against Iowa State and Texas. So I look for the trend to continue as Okie State appears to have as many offensive weapons as a team can have. Weeden, Blackmon, and Randle should dominate this game. The pokes D continues to get better. Pokes roll 64-31.

Tennessee @ Arkansas (-13.5) The Razorbacks come into this game after beating down the Gamecocks of South Carolina. The Razorbacks won that game with ease. They also left about 30, yes 30 points off the board. You take the wide open pass Wingo and Hamilton dropped and the two turnovers they didn't convert inside their opponents 5 yd line as well as 3 missed field goals and they hand 70 on the number 9 ranked Gamecocks. This Tennessee team comes in off a win over in state opponent Middle Tennesse State 24-0, not that impressive, and before there output of 24 puts in the first half, Tennessee had failed to reach the end zone in 9 straight quarters, I look for the Razorbacks to dominate in every fashion of this game. They have two soft opponents in Tennessee and Mississippi State before the face the unbeaten LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge. Wilson goes off in this game, Wright and Adams will break records in this game, and the running game is stagnant unless its a draw or something quick right up the middle. Hogs roll 55-20.

Vikings @ Packer (-14) The Packers continue to play lights out football and Aaron Rodgers is playing the best football I've ever seen by a QB. However, 14 points is a lot to give up to AP and company. Ponder continues to improve and with him becoming increasingly more comfortable in the pocket, I think this is a fairly close football game. Ponder kept his team in the game just 2 weeks ago against this same Packer team. If Green Bay has a weakness, its definitely its secondary. Packers pull out a win, 38-27.

Lions @ Bears (-3): I like the Lions to hit Chicago with everything they have, and they have quite a bit. From a stout D line to an explosive offense. If they can have a decent ground game or quick developing pass plays that are really runs (screen pass, quick out) it will definitely open things up for Calvin down field. If Stafford makes good decisions and shows good ball security, they beat Cutler and company in a close one. Look for Lions to come from behind once again. 34-31 Lions.