Friday Afternoon Breakdown!

Thoughts from Vince...

USC @ Oregon -14.5. I am not sure why I have to break this down for you fools, including Dave who likes USC, but I will go ahead and do it. I was going to be at this game but plane tickets were over $600 round trip so I decided that I would go out a time when the cost was more reasonable. USC averages 34 points a game and gives up 25. Oregon averages 47 points per game (3rd in the nation) and gives up only 22. Oregon is coming off a huge win 53-20 over Stanford, but this is not a team that will have a let down. Oregon is back into the National Title picture, needing some help, but for sure in line for a BCS game with a statement here. LaMichael James truly can not be stopped and Daniel Thomas is making good decisions. Barkley will move the ball, and USC will probably score somewhere in the 20's, but that won't be enough to compete in this game against Oregon in Autzen Stadium. Ducks will stay hot and hope for some help from either Arkansas or Oklahoma.
USC 24 Oregon 52

Kansas State @ Texas -8. Somebody explain to me how Kansas State has only been favored in one game this year? Has nobody bought in? I truly don't understand the continued lines against K State. Texas is coming off a horrible game at Mizzou where they scored 3 points on offense and 5 total. Oh and they lost their best running back? I am nervous though because over 90% of the money is on Kansas State, and the line hasn't moved that much. Making me wonder if Vegas knows something that I don't know. Texas can't really pass the ball but have still found a way to put up 31 points a game. They are only giving up about 21 per game. K State scores 35 per game but gives up 30. K State is not pretty, but they continue to find ways to win. I really don't have a strong feeling either way on who is going to win this game, but I do feel it will be a typical K State game back and forth and will stay within a 1 score game. I am going with K State to win, but will definitely take the points.
K State 28 Texas 27

Nebraska @ Michigan -2.5. I think this is a pretty even battle, Martinez vs Robinson is what I think the difference in the game will be. Nebraska averages 32.9 points per game and Michigan 32.5. Michigan has a better defense ranking 5th in points allowed 15.5, Nebraska solid but not as good 22.2. Two things I really think here, Michigan is the better team, and Nebraska will get exploited again like they did by Wisconsin. I don't think it will be the old fashioned beat off like Wisconsin gave Nebraska, but I think Michigan wins with some ease. Robinson is way better than Martinez both as a runner and a passer. Michigan's defense is quite a bit better than Nebraska's as well, and they are playing in the Big House! Good game to watch but Michigan pulls away.
Nebraska 27 Michigan 37

Bucs @ Packers -14. I don't know that anybody can stop Green Bay! Aaron Rodgers is the real deal, and that defense seems to be waking up. That doesn't bode well for a Bucs team that has struggled this year. Freeman has not looked good, LeGarrett Blount is banged up and not looking great since getting hurt, and Mike Williams or whatever his name is isn't doing anything. Rodgers can throw to Driver, Nelson, Finley, Jennings, etc. Teams coming off a MNF win of 17 or more are 40-22 ATS the following week. I am not going to spend a lot of time here, Packers win another easy one at home!
Bucs 14 Packers 35

Seahawks @ Rams -2.5. This is really a battle of 2 pretty even teams. Seattle has beaten good teams like the Giants and Ravens and the Rams have beaten the Saints. Two stats here that again tell you this is a coin toss game... Seattle has won 11 of the last 12 meetings but they are also 15-32 ATS on the road since 2006. I lean on a few things here, Jackson seems to be back, Bradford is back, and minus a Patrick Peterson 99 yard punt return, the Rams would be 3-0 in their last 3 games. Lynch is looking good for Seattle and will keep them in the game, but the difference here is St Louis has a QB that can actually win a game for them.
Hawks 21 Rams 26

Raiders @ Vikings +1. Here we go with the opposite stat of the Packers game, teams coming off a loss of 17 or more on MNF are 17-36 ATS since 1999. That doesn't bode well for the Vikings, nor does Antoine Winfield being placed on IR. I am still not sold on Carson Palmer, but he should be able to pick this defense apart, part of the reason I am starting him in fantasy football this week. Bush has been a very good replacement for McFadden, and Moore has became a favorite target of Palmer. This is also a huge game for the Raiders with the Broncos breathing down their necks. I do feel like this game is going to be a nail biter because of Adrian Peterson, but I feel strong the Raiders find a way to win even with 12 penalties. Palmer lights up the secondary with 3 TD's and they slow Peterson just enough.
Raiders 28 Vikings 24